Friday Footnotes: Soybean Balance Sheet Blind Spots
February 27, 2026
From a fundamental standpoint, the balance sheet is the primary driver of expectations when it comes to price direction. Ending stocks, and whether they are getting looser or tighter, form the foundation of most arguments over potential price movement.
This year when looking at the balance sheets for corn, soybeans, and wheat, the conversation has centered on abundant production, burdensome ending stocks and all the reasons why prices should move lower. This argument, however, seems to struggle to align with the reality on the ground as cash prices stay supported, demand out of the US remains robust, and traders continue to be surprised by a lack of overly abundant supplies.
Many want to say this lack of movement is due to tight farmer holding, but I contend it is something far more complex.
You see, it is easy to make assumptions about what a balance sheet will mean for supply availability and grain flow. Any merchandiser worth their salt will tell you though that it isn’t that simple. Just because grain exists doesn’t mean it is available or will meet the specifications needed to satisfy a certain sector of demand.
In the physical grain markets, balance sheets matter. But quality, logistics, farmer selling, market psychology, geopolitics and a host of other factors ultimately determine what grain moves and what doesn’t. Over the next few weeks I want to look at each market individually, identifying where those balance sheet blind spots may be lurking and what they could mean for price as we move ahead. Today, we will focus on soybeans.
