Friday Footnotes: The Tariff Ruling Impact

February 20, 2026

There are days where we get weeks’ worth of news all at once and today was one of them.

Earlier this morning the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act to impose tariffs on global trade partners. In a 6-3 ruling, the Court determined that the tariffs were unlawfully imposed, calling into question nearly $175 billion in revenue reportedly collected to date.

Today, I want to dig into what I believe the decision means for trade policy going forward and whether it is likely to have a meaningful impact on prices. In addition, the USDA held its Outlook Forum in Washington DC this week, releasing its first glimpse at the 2026-2027 crop year. We’ll walk through what those initial numbers suggest and talk about what’s most likely to change as the year unfolds.